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Clock & Cloud Team • March 3, 2024

Results 3/3: Geopolitical Survey 2024

In this last blog post related to your answers from our Geopolitical Forecast Survey 2024 we will focus on the questions that handle the geopolitical developments in Asia.

Asia

Respondents of the survey think that it is likely that there will not be a blockade against Taiwan before 1 November 2024. Most of those respondents who did comment their answer argued that China has patience, and / or that it is too early and risky for China to attempt this kind of maneuver.

Will China engage in significant military action (blockade or equivalent to the blockade) against Taiwan before 1 November 2024?

Yes 26% No 74%

In our own analysis, as of now, the blockade of Taiwan in 2024 is estimated as unlikely (+) / possible. The actual war is very unlikely. However, likely or not, it is important to understand the impact of embargo. Estimations say that a Chinese embargo on Taiwan, to which the U.S (and many others) would respond with economic sanctions, would bring down the world economy by about 5%. If the conflict were to escalate even locally into a confrontation between China and the U.S, the impact would be around 10%.

What comes to the tensions between North Korea and South Korea, 65% of respondents have answered that there will not be a confrontation between the two before 1 August 2024 that would result in at least five fatalities.

Will there be a confrontation between military forces / equivalent personnel of North Korea and South Korea before 1 August 2024, resulting in at least five fatalities?

Yes 35% No 65%

Our own analysis says something different. Our timeframe related to this question was the whole year 2024 but we estimated that it is likely that there would be a weeks-long crisis in the Korean Peninsula. This crisis would almost for certain take the form of limited military action initiated by North Korea. This would be followed by weeks of heightened military tensions. North Korea could, for example, attack a disputed island in the Yellow Sea with rockets and artillery fire.

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Survey says that it is almost likely that the U.S or China will not publicly accuse the other of deploying a kinetic weapon against each other before 1 October 2024. There were a few comments that argued that the competition between the U.S and China is most likely to stay within the means of cyber, diplomacy, policy, trade and influencing through the proxies.

Will either the U.S. or China publicly accuse the other of deploying a kinetic weapon against its military or other forces before 1 October 2024?

Yes 32% No 68%

Within the question related to potential confrontation between India and China, your opinion or analysis is almost square. The public opinion says that it is possible that there will be such a confrontation that would lead to at least three fatalities.

Will there be a confrontation between military forces / equivalent personnel of India and China before 1 September 2024, leading to at least three fatalities?

Yes 48% No 52%

Multiple respondents argued that these kinds of small incidents are likely between the two but that it is harder to estimate whether or not there would be fatalities.

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A little more than half say that Min Aung Hlaing will not be the head of government in Myanmar after 1 August 2024.

Will Min Aung Hlaing be the head of government of Myanmar after 1 August 2024?

Yes 47% No 53%

Our own analysis says that In the most likely scenario the Junta will lose territory and power within the upcoming months. In this scenario, however, the Junta will maintain the power of the country. Humanitarian, economical, and political situation will deteriorate even further and there are no signs of betterment of the situation - quite the opposite. It is also possible that the Junta will fall within the next 6 months. The question related to Min Aung Hlaing specifically is obviously harder, however, Junta leader’s position and future are most likely tied to the more general development within the country.