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Clock & Cloud Team • February 25, 2024

Results 1/3: Geopolitical Survey 2024

In this blog post we will provide the analysis about 1/3 of your answers from our Geopolitical Forecast Survey 2024.

In this first part we will focus on questions that handle the fragile situation of the Middle East, and dive deeper into your answers related to the U.S Presidential election and parliamentary elections in Austria.

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Questions about the Middle East

Israel vs. Hamas

Respondents of this survey think that it is almost likely that there will not be successful peace negotiations between Israel and Gaza before 1 August 2024.

Will there be successful peace negotiations between Israel and Gaza before 1 August 2024?

Yes 29% No 71%

In many comments the respondents underlined that the situation in general is difficult for Israel. There were many comments saying that Israel’s goals related to ongoing war with Hamas are only met with the total destruction of the enemy. Basically, in all other scenarios the opposite side wins. Many of those who estimated that there will be successful peace negotiations, commented that even if this would happen, it wouldn’t be the final solution. The role of the U.S was estimated hugely important in relation to successful peace negotiations.

Worded slightly differently, in our own independent analysis we have also estimated that in the most likely scenario within the next 0-6 months the peace agreement is not found between Israel and Hamas. The most influential evidence to support this hypothesis is that Israel will not pull troops out of Gaza until ‘complete victory’ over Hamas - and our analysis says that Israel is not able to eradicate Hamas any time soon.

Israel - Lebanon border

When it comes down to Israel’s potential invasion into Lebanon in order to seize southern Lebanon, most of you think that Israel will not invade at least before 1 August 2024. 25% of the respondents think that Israel will invade somewhere between 1 April and 1 August 2024. Only a few of you have answered that the invasion would happen sooner.

Israel’s potential invasion into Lebanon (to seize southern Lebanon)

  • Israel will invade with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 1 April 2024: 2%

  • Israel will invade with tanks and/or armored vehicles somewhere between 1 April 2024 and 1 August 2024: 25%

  • Israel will not invade before 1 August 2024: 73%

We have estimated that the limited military move by Israel into southern Lebanon is possible within the next 6 months. To be clear, this would include tanks and/or armored vehicles. Winning Hezbollah is not possible without force and that is also one of the reasons why we don’t think that a full invasion to seize southern Lebanon, let's say south of Litani river, is that likely. With the limited military move we mean that Israel could push Hezbollah back from the border and create a space of 5-10 kilometers. Even this kind of maneuver would be hard and it would acquire resources from the IDF. After this kind of maneuver, the probability of full scale invasion would increase because of the need to seize the whole southern Lebanon.

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Attack against Iranian territory

Most of you thought that Israel and/or the U.S will not carry out a direct attack against Iranian territory before 1 August 2024. Only a little bit under one tenth estimated that direct attack would happen before 1 April 2024.

Direct attack against Iranian territory

  • Israel and/or the U.S will carry out direct attack against Iranian territory before 1 April 2024: 9%

  • Israel and/or the U.S will carry out direct attack against Iranian territory somewhere between 1 April 2024 and 1 August 2024: 17%

  • Israel and/or the U.S will not carry out direct attack against Iranian territory before 1 August 2024: 74%

Related to this issue, however, there were multiple comments that said it seems like the direct attack would happen at some point but the respondents weren’t sure when. There were also comments that argued that there is no need for this kind of direct attack since Iran is unable to exert control over its proxies which means that strikes would be targeted mostly against Iran’s proxies in Iraq and Syria.

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U.S Presidential election 2024

From your opinion it is very likely that Trump will be the Republican nominee for U.S President.

Will Donald Trump be the Republican Nominee for U.S President?

Yes 91% No 9%

The public’s reasoning behind this was linked to Trump's big supporter base and to the whole movement behind the Trump-kind-of politics in general.

It can be read between the lines, that if this survey is right, Trump will be the next President since only about 30% has answered yes to the question of Joe Biden’s potential reelection.

Will Joe Biden be reelected as president of the U.S in 2024?

Yes 30% No 70%

However, in the comments some of the respondents have highlighted that in general the incumbent is likely to win. There were also a few comments that said Biden will only win against Trump (specifically). What this means is that if Republicans would have a better candidate they would most likely win. Same kind of argumentation can be found other way round from the media.

We anticipate that the actual election will be between Biden and Trump. The world is now beginning to wake up to the fact that the former U.S. President Donald Trump could actually be returning to the White House. At this very moment, Trump is a slight favorite.

Austrian parliamentary elections 2024

Survey says that it is likely that the Freedom Party of Austria is likely to take most seats in the Austrian parliamentary elections 2024.

Will the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) take most seats in the Austrian parliamentary elections 2024?

Yes 60% No 40%

In the current election trend in Austria, FPÖ leads with 28.6%. This is a significant increase of +12.4 percentage points since the last election. In the bigger picture, Austria’s latest polls align with the larger far-right movement in Europe.