Clock & Cloud Team • May 16, 2024
Ukraine: Scenarios for the ongoing war in 2024
One of the most impactful geopolitical matters within the last few years has been the ongoing war in Ukraine. The war has been a humanitarian catastrophe. In addition, the business impacts from that war have been severe for many industries.
The subject itself is multidimensional, and one can analyse the possible development from multiple different perspectives. This analysis focuses purely on the war in Ukraine and its potential development within the rest of 2024. The broader understanding of what comes to Russian goals and to relations between NATO and Russia are not included.
Scenarios for 2024 (0-6 months):
Likely scenario - Small scale Russian advantage
It is estimated that Russia will likely start a massive attack in summer of 2024, and Ukraine’s current capabilities to defend against it are somewhat questionable. By this attack we don’t mean the Russian launched offensive operation along northern Kharkiv Oblast (started over the weekend 10. - 12.5.2024).
The latest news related to support for Ukraine from the western powers, especially the U.S’ legislative package and additional $400 million military aid package (the latter was announced on May 10) are of great importance overall when assessing Ukraine’s capabilities to defend against a likely summer attack.
However, in this scenario Russia will gain a small advantage compared to the situation as of now (May 2024). This scenario’s probability is very tightly linked to the lack of sufficient level of western support. As of now it seems that even though western support is growing (compared to the situation in April 2024), it is not enough. If the support even slightly decreases, it would give Russia an even clearer advantage. If this scenario happens, slowly but firmly Russia will advance in strategic locations, mostly because of the lack of capabilities within Ukrainian Armed Forces.
At the same time, Russia will be able to maintain and likely even increase its capacity to project new forces into Ukrainian territory. Russia is very likely able to withstand and continue its attacks even with heavy losses. Overall, Russia still maintains an advantage over Ukraine in terms of replacement and substitution. Ukraine has received somewhat minimal replacements recently, and its domestic production, while improving, still lags behind meeting frontline needs.
Within recent months, Ukraine’s air defence has weakened and will continue to decrease without additional support. The latest aid packages (announced within the end of April and at the beginning of May 2024) will help but will not solve the problem. Increased Russian air strikes are likely to force Ukraine to focus its air defence on protecting major cities and energy networks, and those capabilities are to be off from the front line. This would even further deepen the Russian advantage.
Indicators for this scenario:
- No significant additional support from the West (there have been additional support but not enough to avoid this scenario from happening)
- Verification from open sources that Russia have multiple small advantages within the front lines
- Russia shows (verified) capability to project new forces
- Russia continue to show increasing efforts for the mobilization of the whole country into ‘war mode’
The quality and quantity of western support to Ukraine, as well as Russian capacity to produce new forces, are overall one of the greatest factors when evaluating the further development. The political will to keep on fighting is very high with both countries. The latest indicators suggesting Russian increasing efforts related to the economy's mobilization for the war gives an advantage to Russia when assessing the development towards the end of this year.
Unlikely scenario - Ukraine creates the ground for successful counter-offensive
In this scenario Ukraine will be able to hold its current positions or even further liberate some areas. In order for this scenario to become reality, it requires that western support will increase (even more than the latest announcements April - May 2024). Even though the dedication is solely not enough, it is also important to remember that Ukraine is fighting for their independence, and that the will to fight is, and most likely will be strong. In addition, despite the urgent need of western additional support, multiple western nations are truly committed to support Ukraine for a long time. It is realistic, even though as of now unlikely, that Russia will face problems in recruiting new personnel to the war and to keep up war production.
If the western support level continues to increase, and Ukraine is able to hold positions against upcoming attacks, and be able to direct the aid fast and properly to the places where the aid is needed, would this scenario slowly become possible.
Indicators for this scenario:
- Verified internal issues related to Russia's ability to project new forces into Ukraine
- Wider understanding within western nations about the situation in Ukraine, and where it might be heading - meaning that the West will increase greatly its support to Ukraine
- Ukraine; verified small scale operational success within the front lines, small victories grow the morale and the war as a whole will start to take another direction (in favor of Ukraine)
- Ukraine (together with western support) is able to solve current problems related to the lack of artillery ammunition and air defence capabilities
Very unlikely scenario - Ukraine’s collapse
Before the latest news (April 20) related to the U.S’ $60 billion bill, this scenario was estimated unlikely, almost possible. As of now, when acknowledging the latest aid packages to Ukraine and the announcements about the future aid (announced during spring 2024), this scenario is indeed very unlikely within the next six months.
In this scenario Ukraine’s defence will crumble, and Russia is about to subdue Ukraine. There is a realistic possibility that Russia could make significant operational progress in the near term future (0-6 months) which might lead to Ukraine’s collapse. The collapse is more unlikely than Russian operational success. If this scenario is about to become reality within the next six months, Russia will within a few months (June / July 2024) gain more small but important victories, and impacts from those small victories will start to slowly recur.
Indicators for this scenario:
- Public warnings from western intelligence services, especially from the U.S and UK
- Evacuations of the foreign people and assets from the western part of Ukraine
- Increased appearances by Ukraine’s president and other high level officials ‘begin’ for quicker help
- Russia’s simultaneous preparations for next operation (for example against Moldova)